Buy and hold vs GapDiverge
Bitcoin returns. Two different risk profiles.
Same asset, same start date, June 27, 2018 to today. Bitcoin holding delivered the higher total return. GapDiverge finished each displayed period positive in this historical backtest.
Historical backtest / Unleveraged / Includes fees and slippage
Side by side
Total return
Time in market
Losing years
GapDiverge + 5% stables is the total result with the idle balance earning 5% a year in stablecoins between setups.
Year by year
| Year | Hold BTC | GapDiverge | + 5% stables |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018Jun 27 to Dec 31 | -39.6% | +19.4% | +22.1% |
| 2019 | +94.3% | +50.2% | +56.6% |
| 2020 | +302.0% | +43.1% | +49.5% |
| 2021 | +59.8% | +26.8% | +32.5% |
| 2022 | -64.2% | +43.5% | +49.8% |
| 2023 | +155.6% | +25.8% | +31.3% |
| 2024 | +121.3% | +23.9% | +29.7% |
| 2025 | -6.3% | +20.2% | +24.9% |
| 2026YTD through Oct 13 | 0.0% | +36.3% | +40.6% |
| Since 2018 | +1329.0% | +1092.0% | +1596.0% |
From June 27, 2018 through October 13, 2026, $10,000 invested in Bitcoin grew to approximately $142,895, compared with $119,199 following GapDiverge's backtested trades, or $169,602 if the idle balance had earned 5% a year in stablecoins between trades.
Holding Bitcoin delivered higher total returns. GapDiverge recorded positive returns in every displayed period, including 2018, 2022 and 2025, when holding Bitcoin lost value.
How to read this
Holding captured more upside
Bitcoin's strong gains in 2020, 2023 and 2024 drove much of the return gap. GapDiverge was in the market only 14% of the time during the backtest.
Positive in down periods
GapDiverge's backtested returns were positive in 2018, 2022 and 2025. Holding Bitcoin lost value in each of these periods.
A different approach
Holding Bitcoin provides continuous market exposure. GapDiverge takes selective trades and stays out of the market between setups.
Method and disclosure
Every trade in the GapDiverge column is a historical backtest: the model was replayed over past daily candles and the trades were reconstructed afterwards, not published in advance. Real-time publishing began August 27, 2026, and the trade log labels each trade as replay or real time.
Results are unleveraged spot moves on the full account, compounded, after fees and slippage. Holding is measured on BTCUSDT daily closes over the identical window. Drawdown for both columns is peak to trough on daily marks. 2018 covers June 27 to December 31 and 2026 runs to October 13, so neither is a full calendar year. The third column assumes the balance sits in stablecoins earning a flat 5% yearly yield, compounded daily, whenever no Bitcoin long is open. Real staking yields vary and carry platform and counterparty risk.
Past behaviour is evidence, not a promise. Nothing here is investment advice. See the risk disclosure.
Explore every trade
All 35 trades behind the GapDiverge column, wins and losses, with entry, exit and provenance label.