Method

How it works

Everything on this site, in plain English.

The process

Six steps

We read the market

BTC candles on 4h, daily and weekly are pulled every two minutes and MACD is calculated on each.

We look for disagreement

When price makes a new extreme and MACD does not, that pivot is flagged as a divergence.

We check the gaps

If an unfilled CME weekend gap sits in the same direction, the setup scores higher.

We score the setup

Five checks add up to a score out of 100: divergence strength, gap alignment, counter-trend edge, multi-timeframe agreement and volume.

We wait for confirmation

Nothing is published until the complete long-side rule set passes. Most of the time the engine is simply monitoring.

We manage the position

Stop beyond the 20-bar swing. At +5% the stop moves to entry, then trails 5% under the running high. A 45-bar limit closes anything that stalls.

The five states

Engine

Waiting for a setup: Nothing is forming. This is the default state and it is where the engine spends most of its time.
Watching conditions: Some conditions are aligned but the score is below the confirmation floor of 55. Monitoring information, not a trade.
Setup confirmed: A long-side daily divergence passed every production rule. This is the only state that publishes an entry, stop and reference target.
Position active: The entry window has passed and the rule set is holding the trade. The page shows management levels, never a new entry.
Closed: The trailing stop, the original stop or the 45 day time limit ended the trade, and it moves into the track record.

Reading the score

100 points

Five checks add up to a score out of 100. A setup can only fire at 55 or above. Anything below that is monitoring information, never a published trade.

0Fires at 55100

Below 55

No trade

55 to 74

Fires, medium

75 plus

Fires, high

Where the points come from

Divergence strength30 pts
How clean and how large the disagreement between price and MACD is.
CME gap alignment25 pts
Whether an unfilled gap sits in the direction the setup points.
Counter-trend edge20 pts
Full weight when the setup fades a stretched 200 EMA trend, almost none when it agrees with it. The replay is emphatic on this point.
Multi timeframe15 pts
Whether 4h, daily and weekly agree.
Volume confirmation10 pts
Whether volume backs the reversal.

Glossary

Plain English

MACD: Two moving averages compared against each other. When they pull apart, momentum is building; when they close in, it is fading.
Divergence: Price makes a new high or low but MACD does not follow. It means the move is running out of fuel.
Hidden divergence: The mirror pattern, read as a trend pausing rather than ending: price makes a higher low while MACD makes a lower low. It is traded alongside regular divergence and is where most of the extra setups now come from.
CME gap: A jump on the futures chart between Friday's close and Sunday's reopen, created because futures do not trade all weekend.
Entry, stop, target: Where to open the trade, where to accept the idea was wrong, and the reference level the setup aims for. The target is not an automatic take profit: exits come from the trailing stop.
R:R: Risk to reward. 2.0x means the target is twice as far away as the stop.
Trailing stop: A stop that follows price up. Once the trade is 5% in profit the stop moves to entry, then stays 5% under the highest price reached, so a strong move keeps paying.
Counter-trend edge: How far price sits from the 200 day average when the divergence confirms. Setups that fade a stretched trend score the full 20 points; setups that simply agree with the trend score almost none.
200 EMA: A long moving average used to read trend position. Divergences that fade a stretched trend have historically been the stronger version of the setup.
Score: The 0 to 100 total of the five checks. Anything under 55 is discarded rather than published.
Worst setup: The largest loss any single published setup finished with, measured from entry to exit.

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